Archive for the ‘geopolitics’ Category

The Iranian Election and the Revolution Test

Thursday, June 25th, 2009

 

Another spot on analysis of George Friedman the American private spy and analyst, I don’t agree with everything but with most of it. It is very well informed.

 

June 22, 2009

Graphic for Geopolitical Intelligence Report

By George Friedman

Related Link

Related Special Topic Page

Successful revolutions have three phases. First, a strategically located single or limited segment of society begins vocally to express resentment, asserting itself in the streets of a major city, usually the capital. This segment is joined by other segments in the city and by segments elsewhere as the demonstration spreads to other cities and becomes more assertive, disruptive and potentially violent. As resistance to the regime spreads, the regime deploys its military and security forces. These forces, drawn from resisting social segments and isolated from the rest of society, turn on the regime, and stop following the regime’s orders. This is what happened to the Shah of Iran in 1979; it is also what happened in Russia in 1917 or in Romania in 1989.

(more…)

أحداث ايران: بين الثورة الاسلامية والثورة البرتقالية

Friday, June 19th, 2009

دياب أبو جهجه

18/06/2009

هل حصل تلاعب في الانتخابات الايرانية؟ وهل من الضروري أن يتلاعب أحمدي نجاد بالانتخابات لكي يفوز؟ اذا ما صدقنا الدعاية الغربية يبدو أن الإجابة الوحيدة لهذا السؤال هي نعم، وذلك هو ايضا رأي المعسكر الاصلاحي في طهران. وهو معسكر يتشكل من تحالف واسع لقوى متباينة قد تكون تناقضاتها أكبر من نقاط تلاقيها. ولكن لماذا يزور رئيس مثل نجاد الانتخابات وبأي آلية يستطيع فعل ذلك وهو يواجه خصوما لهم من النفوذ والامتداد والمال أضعاف ما يملكه هو

(more…)

who is the pirate in Somalia?

Sunday, April 12th, 2009

Johann Hari is a writer for the Independent newspaper.
….. in 1991, the government of Somalia - in the Horn of Africa - collapsed. Its nine million people have been teetering on starvation ever since - and many of the ugliest forces in the Western world have seen this as a great opportunity to steal the country’s food supply and dump our nuclear waste in their seas.

(more…)

كلا, الرسائل لا تقرأ من عناوينها: نحو نظرة علمية مركبة لمشكلة دارفور و ادانة البشير

Friday, March 27th, 2009

 

 

دياب أبو جهجه

عندما اكتشفت شركة شفرون النفطية الأميركية حقولا للنفط جنوبي السودان عام 1978 و في وقت كانت الولايات المتحدة الأميركية قد ثبتت أقدامها في وادي النيل العربي بقطريه المصري و السوداني بعد انضمام نظام السادات الى فلكها السياسي و تكريس تحالفها مع نظام النميري, كانت معالم تمرد واسع النطاق ترتسم في جنوب السودان يقوده المقدم جون قرنق من أجل المساواة و الحقوق. و مع اكتشاف النفط أعادت حكومة النميري رسم حدود الولايات الجنوبية بهدف احكام قبضتها على الحقول النفطية و هو ما أجج حالة التمرد و الشعور بالغبن في الجنوب و دفع قرنق الى اعلان المنشأات و الحقول النفطية أهدافا مشروعة لهجمات قواته. و هكذا كان النفط و تقاسم الثروة قبل المسائل الاثنية و الدينية اساسا للحرب الأهلية السودانية بين الشمال و الجنوب. و دفعت هذه الحرب و استهداف المنشأات النفطية الشركات الى الفرار و توقف ضخ النفط و لم يستطع السودان الاستفادة من ثروته الجديدة

(more…)

THE WINTER OF BASHIR’S DISCONTENT: AFRICOM’S COVERT WAR IN SUDAN

Sunday, March 22nd, 2009

 

Keith Harmon Snow

4 March 2009

www.allthingspass.com

I recently received a phone call from an Australian man who identified himself as an investigator for the prosecutor at the International Criminal Court (ICC) at the Hague, Netherlands. The investigator and his colleague had read my story, “Merchant’s of Death: Exposing Corporate Financed Holocaust in Africa,” and they wanted my cooperation to provide more detailed evidence about the warlords behind the massacres at Bogoro, Congo, described briefly in my story.

After some weeks of back and forth discussions and me revisiting notes and photos to see what I had, I sent them an email at the definitive moment, when they were hoping to receive a brief “dossier” about the specific case—which they said “had generated a lot of interest” at the ICC—and I shared my uncertainty about the ethics of collaborating with an “International Criminal Court” that was only indicting black Africans. I indicated my concern for the witness ‘Sandrine’, a young girl discussed in my story who named names of commanders, dates of executions, and who herself used a machete in an ethnic massacre and was raped by militiamen. I noted that witnesses identified for the Rwandan Tribunal (ICTR) had been murdered or mysteriously disappeared, and noted my awareness of the injustice of the Tribunals for Yugoslavia and Rwanda, and the disconcerting trajectory of the ICC.

(more…)