Abou Jahjah comments تعليقات أبو جهجه

Another spot on analysis of George Friedman the American private spy and analyst, I don’t agree with everything but with most of it. It is very well informed.

June 22, 2009

By George Friedman

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Successful revolutions have three phases. First, a strategically located single or limited segment of society begins vocally to express resentment, asserting itself in the streets of a major city, usually the capital. This segment is joined by other segments in the city and by segments elsewhere as the demonstration spreads to other cities and becomes more assertive, disruptive and potentially violent. As resistance to the regime spreads, the regime deploys its military and security forces. These forces, drawn from resisting social segments and isolated from the rest of society, turn on the regime, and stop following the regime’s orders. This is what happened to the Shah of Iran in 1979; it is also what happened in Russia in 1917 or in Romania in 1989.

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I will share with you here few things I have written over the past days in e-mail debates with some friends. They are fragments of thoughts as I just publish my answers because I don’t have the right to publish the whole debate without the permission of the participants..

The issue in Iran now is that the majority voted for Nejad and that this is de facto a pro-system vote. The opposition is claiming that the elections were rigged and so far they couldn’t show any solid evidence of this. Only speculation. The system that the Iranian people chose for their life is their own business, I am not an Iranian but what is clear to me is that this is a velvet revolution aiming at destabilizing another anti-western regime, and  as you know I am not part of the people who support these kinds of activities especially when it is lead by a corrupted elite of millionaires like Musavi and Rafsanjani and behind them an army of yuppies.
My sympathy goes to the majority poor rural masses who voted on Nejad. i am not alone in this, Also Chavez has the same analysis, add to that millions of people in the third world. That first world elites sympathies with the velvet revolutionaries is nothing but normal.

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دياب أبو جهجه

18/06/2009

هل حصل تلاعب في الانتخابات الايرانية؟ وهل من الضروري أن يتلاعب أحمدي نجاد بالانتخابات لكي يفوز؟ اذا ما صدقنا الدعاية الغربية يبدو أن الإجابة الوحيدة لهذا السؤال هي نعم، وذلك هو ايضا رأي المعسكر الاصلاحي في طهران. وهو معسكر يتشكل من تحالف واسع لقوى متباينة قد تكون تناقضاتها أكبر من نقاط تلاقيها. ولكن لماذا يزور رئيس مثل نجاد الانتخابات وبأي آلية يستطيع فعل ذلك وهو يواجه خصوما لهم من النفوذ والامتداد والمال أضعاف ما يملكه هو

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The turmoil in Tehran reflects a refusal to accept Ahmadinejad is popular and confusion about how to respond to the US

• 
• • Seumas Milne
  • The Guardian, Thursday 18 June 2009

‘They have elected a ­Labour government," a Savoy diner famously declared on the night of Britain’s election landslide in 1945. "The country will never stand for it." From the evidence so far coming out of Iran, something similar seems to be ­happening on the streets of Tehran – and in the western capitals just as desperate to see the back of Iranian president ­Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

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June 15, 2009 | 1745 GMT

By George Friedman

www.stratfor.com

The Iranian Presidential Elections

In 1979, when we were still young and starry-eyed, a revolution took place in Iran. When I asked experts what would happen, they divided into two camps.

The first group of Iran experts argued that the Shah of Iran would certainly survive, that the unrest was simply a cyclical event readily manageable by his security, and that the Iranian people were united behind the Iranian monarch’s modernization program. These experts developed this view by talking to the same Iranian officials and businessmen they had been talking to for years — Iranians who had grown wealthy and powerful under the shah and who spoke English, since Iran experts frequently didn’t speak Farsi all that well.

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